Steelers @ Redskins Preview

REDSKINS vs. STEELERS
Monday, November 3, 2008

So here we go. November 3 is upon us. The game that us DC area Steeler Fans had highlighted since the schedules came out. The schedule makers love to work those interesting angles, and it doesn’t get much better than two top tier teams battling in our nations capital the night before the Presidential election. The NFL and ESPN have gone as far as to include interviews with John McCain and Barack Obama that will air at halftime of the broadcast. Your resident psycho, will be at the game and will miss all the hoopla, including Tony Kornheiser undoubtedly reminding the masses repeatedly of the election trend that shows Redskins wins corresponding to incumbent election victories and opponents victories leading to the opposing party gaining the presidential nomination. Anyway, that’s all we'll get into about any political aspect of this game. Let's take a little look at what may transpire on the field.

The Skins faithful around here seemed pretty confident that the Steeler pass rush can't get to Campbell because they couldn't get to Eli Manning last week. "Everyone knows that to beat the Giants you have to pressure Eli!" one Skins fan reminded me. He must have forgotten that the Giants won the Super Bowl last year and are 6-1 this year. He's right, Eli gets rattled when pressured, but that Giants O line hasn’t allowed people to get to him very often this season. That said, the Redskins have a very good offensive line as well. Chris Samuels should be back after missing last weeks game, and the Skins line as a whole has only allowed 16 sacks all season. That would be an average of 2 per game, math majors. The Steelers have sacked the opposing quarterback 25 times, or about 3.5 times per game. Skins QB Jason Campbell has also had a little bit of trouble holding on to the ball when sacked. Seeing as the Redskins have yet to throw an interception this season, the defense will need to create turnovers any way they can. Pittsburgh comes in even in turnover ratio, but that’s slightly misleading in that they were +4 prior to last week, where they couldn’t generate a turnover, and the Giants picked Roethlisberger off 4 times. I'd say the Steelers have a distinct advantage in pressuring the quarterback, but the Skins have been proficient in holding on to the ball all season long, so we'll give them the edge in the turnover battle.

Next up, running games. Coming in to this game, the Redskins bring the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the league, but the Steelers have the 3rd ranked rushing defense. The Steelers haven't allowed any one individual running back to gain more than 63 yards on them all season. Clinton Portis has gone for double that in each of his last 4 games, and 121 in the game prior to that string. The Steelers tend to prefer going up against the big, bruising backs such as Brandon Jacobs and Jamal Lewis, who they had good success against in earlier games. Portis is more of a slasher. Definitely has a power back mentality, but is a little bit quicker on his feet, and finds holes sooner than the bruisers. He's been nagged by hip and ankle injuries this week, but will definitely play. This week will assuredly be the biggest test the Steelers run defense has faced this year. Word out of Pittsburgh is that neither Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith have practiced this week. Hampton has a toe injury and Smith an undisclosed personal matter. Given the Steelers 3-4 scheme, missing 2 of your top 3 against the rushing yardage leader doesn’t bode well. I'm sure both will play, but it will be interesting to see how they respond after missing practice all week.

Pittsburgh should get Willie Parker back, as he's practiced all week, and despite Mewelde Moore giving some very solid efforts in his place, having Willie back will bring a different dynamic to the offense. I'm not sure how great Willie will do coming off the injury, but I think he'll get the bulk of the workload, with Moore as a more than capable alternate. The key to beating the Redskins in my opinion, is keeping Big Ben upright. I don’t think it should be that hard, as the Skins have only sacked the opposing quarterback 10 times all season, and they'll be without their latest big name, little production signing, Jason Taylor. Parker should be able to create enough space to not allow the Skins to key on blitzing Ben, though I'm sure Greg Blache will try. I would hope that more short routes are implemented into the Steelers scheme, seeing as all the downfield routes that took forever to develop last week were critical in the loss to the Giants. Granted, Roethlisberger needs to make good decisions, as the Redskins secondary, even without Shawn Springs, is playing very well. Carlos Rogers is playing (as I prepare for spontaneous combustion) Pro bowl caliber football (OK, I think I'm good), Smoot is always scrappy and should match up well with Hines Ward if the situation calls for it, and the safeties in LaRon Landry and Chris Horton can create turnovers and/or make big hits when needed. I do, however like the idea of running a lot of 5 wide. The more the Steelers can coax Washington into putting Leigh Torrence on the field, the better their chances at winning. Burgundy and Gold faithful better hope that Smoot and Rogers don’t get caught by a Hines Ward block, or we may see Torrence a lot. If that’s the case, the odds of a Steeler victory move exponentially higher.

All things considered, this game should come down to the quarterback play. I don’t see either team running the ball with substantial success, so it will come down to who can hit their passes consistently and minimize turnovers.

Next, there are two things that concern me about the Redskins. Both surround the number 89. First is Santana Moss on punt returns. He came in last week, in a close game, after Randle El failed to muster any significant returns (we remember), and promptly returned a punt for a touchdown, all but sealing the game for the Redskins. The Steelers special teams of course took a big hit last week when Long Snapper Greg Warren tore his ACL and was put on injured reserve. Punter Mitch Berger is also banged up and may not play. That means the Steelers may have a rookie long snapper and rookie punter, each playing their first NFL game, against a dangerous tandem of return men. Don’t underestimate the importance of this matchup, should Berger not be able to play.

The second concern is the bubble screens to Moss that the Redskins LOVE to run. The Steeler corners line up about 10-15 yards off the line of scrimmage on about 90% of plays. One quick step move by Santana Moss around Ike or Deshea, or a double move and deep pass, could mean 6 points for the Skins. The Steelers have long been vulnerable to these types of plays, and a team like the Redskins, who run them regularly, may be able to exploit that.

That leads me to two other concerns, now that I think about it. Just as the Steelers have shown difficulty covering quick screens or shifty receivers such as Moss and Randle El, they CONSISTENTLY fail to cover running backs coming out of the backfield on passing plays, and tight ends. Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley both are fantastic receivers for their positions, and could give the Steelers trouble in the flat all game long. Portis worries me a lot more than Cooley does, but remember, of all the Giants weapons on offense, the only one who found the end zone against the Steelers was TE Kevin Boss…My final (I think) concern revolves our old friend Antwaan Randle El. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that he's been like a little puppy dog following Jim Zorn this week BEGGING to get a pass play in. Whether it be something similar to what we saw in Pittsburgh with the option reverses, or cross field laterals, or a Redskin modified version of the Wildcat, anytime El gets the ball behind the line of scrimmage, the Steelers better make sure they cover down the field. This is where they'll miss Ryan Clark even more so. Tyrone Carter loves to play aggressive, so he would be susceptible to a play or two like this.

We'll be at the game, 50 yard line, 2nd to last row in the stadium :-) Only the best for the Ward. We may have some photo journal pics from the game, but either way, we move from the outhouse to the Penthouse in a mere 6 days, as next week we'll be on the field for the Colts-Steelers matchup at Heinz Field. First things first though, lets get through Monday night alive, healthy, at 6-2, and ready to move into an extremely tough 2nd half, current opponents records be damned. With the Ravens now right on their tail, every game will be an important one for the black and gold. Hopefully it all begins tonight!!