There was a little bit of consistancy this past week in the NFL. The top teams for the most part won, Dallas continued to unravel, and the picture is starting to become a little bit clearer moving forward. One thing there was no consistency in was the spreads that the Virus had as opposed to my own in generating last weeks picks. We've gotten that all cleared up for this week, so the challenge is on. I'll be in black, the Virus in the Garnet (thats right).
Tampa Bay (+2.5) over DALLAS: Just too much going on in big D right now. This is a huge game in the NFC, as both teams are in dog fights (sorry...would it be better to say battles?) in their respective divisions. The Cowboys secondary is still decimated, and the more work that Jeff Garcia and Antonio Bryant get in with each other, the more formidable a tandem they become. Former Panther Bryant has put up significantly better numbers with Garcia as quarterback, and with the injuries around the Cowboys defensive backfield, I think that will continue. DeMarcus Ware could set a record in this game. With a sack, he'll have posted at least one sack in 11 straight games. Also of note, Cadillac Williams practiced with the Bucs this week, for the first time since suffering what some thought might be a career threatening knee injury. Not that he'll be a factor in this game, or even this season, but nice to see him fight back and look to be successful. Anyway, I like the Bucs D to keep constant pressure on Brad Johnson, and the O to be able to put up enough points to bring home the W and keep pace in the NFC South.
Tampa Bay (+2.5) over Dallas:
"Cuz I'm freeeeee. Freeee faaaaallin." Suddenly, 4-12 doesn't look that unreasonable.
Washington (-7.5) over DETROIT: Well, the Rams came in to DC a few weeks ago looking like the worst team in football and beat the Skins. Sorry Detroit, no such luck for the Lions this week. The Roy Williams trade now allows defenses to key on Calvin Johnson, and the Rudi Johnson/Kevin Smith duo just ins't getting it done. Dan Orlovsky will be pressured early and often, even with a hobbled Jason Taylor. Portis may run for 250 against Detroit, who rank dead last in team defense, allowing an average of 418 yards per game. The sputtering Skins offense should get back on track this week, and cruise easily past the 7.5 spread, gearing up for their big game next Monday when the Steelers pay a visit.
Detroit (+7.5) over Washington:
The Redskins don't make it easy on their fans. Portis and Shaun Alexander (yeah that's right) may set the record for most rushing yards in a game, but the Redskins haven't been able to blow out an opponent yet and I see no reason why this week should be any different, even if they're playing the Lions.
Buffalo (-1.5) over MIAMI: Since Marsha Brady has been in the news lately, lets give her a quasi shoutout in relation to this game...Marshawn, Marshawn, Marshawn!! The Buffalo O has come together a bit lately, to compliment their defense, who have been stellar all year. The league is slowly catching up to the wildcat, and the Bills defense is fast and athletic, which should help them counter those tricks. I dont think that the Dolphins have enough standard plays to be able to hang. I like Lee Evans in this game as well.
Mine and Jon's picks aren't that fun this week yet considering we're on the same page about the first 3 games we've picked. Frankly I'm stunned that Buffalo's only giving 1.5. The Ravens murdered the Wildcat last week and are facing 27 consecutive life sentences. And speaking of murderers, we all know who used to be Running Back for the Bills. All these signs can't be ignored and the Dolphins are going to lose again, unfortunately for the viewers who find the wildcat irresistable.
New England (-7.5) over St. Louis
NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over St. Louis: So maybe not all hope is lost for the Rams. They have won 2 in a row over NFC East beasts, and now travel to the east coast to take on one of the AFC's finest. To say the Pats season has been a rollercoaster would be an understatement. Brady goes down, Cassel comes in and performs well, then terrible, then brilliantly...so who knows what's to come next. The running back matchup this week features Steven Jackson agains BenJarvis Green-Ellis. Wow. Despite that, now that they've been able to open up the playbook a little bit, the Pats may hit their stride. I think they have a lot of margin for error this week against the Rams, so I see no reason why they shouldnt be able to win by more than 7.5.
Here's a statistic I heard on the radio yesterday. Bill Belichick has played against the NFC West 14 times in his career. Of those times, he is 7-7 against the spread. And by 7-7, I mean 14-0. When Belichick plays the west, you take the Patriots.
San Diego (+3) over New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over San Diego (@ Wembley Stadium, London, England): I hate to call this a home game for the Saints, as the NFL does...but oh well. We know Reggie Bush is out. We know the NFL is investigating 3 Saints players for illegal substances, 2 of which are starters. But look at what San Diego does on the road. Especially when coming East. They thought they couldnt come farther East than New York, then the NFL sends them to England. England thinks they're gonna see Shawne Merriman and LaDanian Tomlinson, and they get just L.T. at about 75% at best. The Chargers may get Chris Chambers back for this one, but won't know til gametime. I still like Brees and compnay to fight through the turmoil, and rebound big after last weeks embarrassing loss. They'll need to to keep up with the Bucs, Panthers, and Falcons.
Finally, some dissent among the ranks. Too many distractions going on in New Orleans, and the Saints don't seem to be doing their part to take advantage of the season Brees is having. Meanwhile, Phillip "Anger Management" Rivers is also making his case for MVP, and it seems that the Chargers are healthier and less distracted than the Saints. The only losers here are those poor Brits who got the Giants and the Dolphins last year and are getting a depleted Saints - Chargers game this year. The NFL is trying too hard to be the good ex-boyfriend. America won the Revolutionary War AND the War of 1812, leave those Brits alone and stop extending the Olive Branch. No one wins when the NFL does this
Kansas City (+13.5) over NY JETS: Sorry, I'm not picking a team that lost to the Raiders to beat anyone by 2 touchdowns.
Let's have some fun in the "You Play To Win The Game" Bowl. The Jets are such an enigma this year that it wouldn't surprise me if Pinnochio Favre threw for SEVEN touchdowns this week.
Atlanta (+9) over PHILADELPHIA: It rarely happens that the Iggles are overshadowed in their hometown, but with the Phillies coming home for the middle 3 games of the World Series, this is one of those times. Since I dont expect there to be many Falcons fans in the stands, the Philly faithful will resort to fighting each other over parking spaces between leaving the Linc and getting into Citizens Bank for game 4. So if game 4 isn't sold out, you know why. Need tickets? Check the Philadelphia emergency rooms for tickets. You may miss the first few innings, but hey, no one will be the wiser. Anyway, in this game I'd like to say I expect the Eagels D to bring the same pressure they brought on to Roethlisberger, but they havent been able to match that since then. I like the Eagles to win, but 9 is a lot against a still improving Atlanta team. Brian Westbrook should be back, whoich should directly correlate into more points for the Eagles, but I think Michael Turner, Matt Ryan, and Roddy White will have their opportunities as well.
Atlanta (+9) over PHILADELPHIA: It rarely happens that the Iggles are overshadowed in their hometown, but with the Phillies coming home for the middle 3 games of the World Series, this is one of those times. Since I dont expect there to be many Falcons fans in the stands, the Philly faithful will resort to fighting each other over parking spaces between leaving the Linc and getting into Citizens Bank for game 4. So if game 4 isn't sold out, you know why. Need tickets? Check the Philadelphia emergency rooms for tickets. You may miss the first few innings, but hey, no one will be the wiser. Anyway, in this game I'd like to say I expect the Eagels D to bring the same pressure they brought on to Roethlisberger, but they havent been able to match that since then. I like the Eagles to win, but 9 is a lot against a still improving Atlanta team. Brian Westbrook should be back, whoich should directly correlate into more points for the Eagles, but I think Michael Turner, Matt Ryan, and Roddy White will have their opportunities as well.
Philadelphia (-9) over Atlanta:
At first I was ready to pick the Falcons, in shock that they were GETTING 9. But then I thought about it some more and decided to change my mind. I just don't fully believe in the Falcons yet. If they win this game, they'll have my support.
CAROLINA (-4) over Arizona: As was reaffirmed last week, home records vs. road records is a pretty valid stat. The Redbirds aren't too swift on the road, and Carolina is lights out at home. The Panthers stifled a strong New Orleans offense last week, so I like them to do the same against Arizona. The Cardinals may get Anquan Boldin back for this one, much sooner than expected, but I dont know that he'll be a huge upgrade over what Steve Breaston has done in his absence. I like Arizona, I really do...but after last weeks display, I can't pick against the Cats at home.
Most complete team in the NFC?
BALTIMORE (-7) over Oakland: Stover vs. Janikowski. Unless Sebas can hit from 77, or whatever it was, I dont know that the Raiders will be able to score.
Baltimore (-7) over Oakland:
BALTIMORE (-7) over Oakland: Stover vs. Janikowski. Unless Sebas can hit from 77, or whatever it was, I dont know that the Raiders will be able to score.
I picked up Flacco this week cuz Aaron Rogers is on a bye. If they can't throw up more than 7 over Oakland, they should be contracted. They stifled Miami in Baltimore, and Miami looks like the September through Early November 2007 Patriots compared to the Raiders. Thus begins the battle of the douchebag fan bases.
Jacksonville (-7) over Cleveland:
Cleveland (+7) over JACKSONVILLE: Eh, I'm not really too fond of this pick, but it seems like every time we get close to Brady Quinn time, D.A. has a big game. Jones-Drew should put up huge numbers, but I like the Browns to keep it close, and maybe even pull off a road win. Hopefully they wont, but I wouldnt be shocked to see it happen.
No way does Cleveland get within 7 of Jacksonville. Too much turmoil up in the land of Drew Carey. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's locked in a heated struggle with the Colts for #2 in the AFC South.
Cincinnati (+9) over Houston
HOUSTON (-9) over Cincinnati: I am willing to bet anyone that this is the most that Houston has ever been favored by in franchise history. If anyone can prove me wrong, I'll owe you a coke. Schaub has continued his mini resurgence, and Steve Slaton has continued to run with that chip on his shoulder. The Bengals of course are without Keith Rivers, Carson Palmer may now finally announce that he's done for the year, and there's very VERY little to look at as a positive in jungleland. I might actually take the Texans at double that spread (another set o words that has probably never been muttered!)
Just to dissent with Jon up there. 9 is a lot for an NFL game (and I use the term "NFL" VERY loosely).
New York Giants (+3) over Pittsburgh
PITTSBURGH (-3) over NY Giants: Dammit Santonio...It's not like he got busted before a Bengals game, or some lesser opponent, he waits til the meat of the schedule comes around then fires up some doobies. Even still, I like the Steelers in this game. I know the Giants have a nice pass rush, but I dont think the Steeler O Line will get embarrassed like they did against Philly. (By the way, Darnell Stapleton has filled in brilliantly for Kendall Simmons thus far, didn't I tell you Simmons going down was the biggest improvement the Steeler line could get?) So no Willie Parker, no Santonio Holmes, but I still think the Steelers have enough firepower to put up some points on the G men, and Dick LeBeau will have Woodley, Harrison, Farrior, Timmons, and Foote in Eli's face a lot, someway or another.
I think New York will win this game. Therefore, I obviously think they will cover the spread. I WANT Pittsburgh to win so that the Giants will drop in the NFC East standings and so Pittsburgh will be getting a little too cocky when they roll into Raljon next Monday Night, but I honestly don't see it happening. Sorry Jon, sorry self.
San Francisco (-5) over Seattle: Mike Singletary, meet Jim Haslett. The 9ers have talent, but a fresh approach on the coaching staff I think will help. Frank Gore will respond from last weeks abysmal game to run rampant over the Seahawks. Just cant help but continue to feel bad for Seattle's sports output in the past year.San Francisco (-5) over Seattle:
Gore's doing some nice work in the land of the Grateful Dead. The Seahawk is STILL not a real bird. This one's a no-brainer
Tennessee (-4) over Indianapolis
This is the first big test for a young Titans team (with the exception of Kerry Collins), featuring YOUR next President of the United States of America/NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Mr. Albert Haynesworth vs a battle-tested but aging and struggling Colts team. The balance of power in the AFC is shifting and Tennessee seems poised to take the reigns from their big brothers in the AFC South.
Indianapolis (+4) over TENNESSEE: Tennessee aint goin 16-0. While the Colts have only shown up in spots, they tend to play well in big games, and on national television. Tennessee isn't quite ready for their close up. Sure they have beaten up on inferior opponents, but now that the Colts come to town, I think the decline begins. I think Tennessee will definitely be a force throughout the year and into January, but their winning streak comes to an end on Monday night. Mercury Morris, get the champagne on ice.
No comments:
Post a Comment