The 2008 World Series begins tonight, and features two teams who have one World Series Championship between them (1980 Phillies). The Tampa Bay Rays were probably right up there with the Pirates in the preseason odds to win the pennant (The Rays were 200-1), and the Phillies, while viewed as a strong contender, were viewed as being susceptible to the same choke jobs than have hampered Philadelphia sports teams since the Flyers Broad Street Bullies were hanging multiple Stanley Cup Banners in the 70's (with a few exceptions here and there).
Philadelphia hasn't won a major sports championship since 1983, despite those that may point you in the direction of the Philadelphia Soul's 2008 Arena Bowl victory, or the Phantoms 98 and 05 Calder Cups. Tampa Bay has had 2 in the past 6 years, with the Buccaneers winning Super Bowl XXXVII in 2003 and the Lightning winning the Stanley Cup in 2004.
What's the similarity in these Tampa Bay championships? In both situations, the Tampa Bay team defeated the Philadelphia team in order to earn the right to play for the title. The Bucs went to Veterans Stadium in 2003 and beat the Eagles 27-10 to advance to Super Bowl XXXVII. to add heartbreak to the Philladelphia faithful, that was also the last game ever played at the Vet. The Lightning outlasted the Flyers in a brutal 7 game series in 2004 to advance to the Stanley Cup finals. In both cases, the Tampa Bay representatives were the eventual champions of the league. Can the Rays continue the Tampa Bay roll over Philly? How bout a position by position breakdown.
First Base: Philadelphia's Ryan Howard vs. Tampa Bay's Carlos Pena: For the most part, these two are very similar players. Both are above average size, but play the position well. Howard obviously has a little more pop, as he again led the National League in Home Runs. Averages for each hovered right around .250 for the season, though Howard seemed to pick it up later in the year. Pena, while experiencing quite a resurgence since signing with the Rays, doesn’t quite bring what Ryan Howard does, even with Howard's power outage thus far in the postseason. Advantage: Phillies
Second Base: Philadelphia's Chase Utley vs. Tampa Bay's Akinori Iwamura: No brainer. Iwamura is a nice player, and proved very selfless when he moved from third to second to allow Evan Longoria to come in and take over the hot corner for years to come in Tampa Bay. Iwamura may have the advantage in speed, but that’s about it. Utley is arguably the best 2nd basemen in the league, let along this series. Advantage: Phillies
Shortstop: Philadelphia's Jimmy Rollins vs. Tampa Bay's Jason Bartlett: Again, a no brainer. Bartlett is a nice player, and has been a bit of a spark plug for the Rays all season long, but Jimmy Rollins, though not matching the production he showed last season, is still the reigning NL MVP. I look for him to shine brighter in this series as well. Advantage: Phillies
Third Base: Philadelphia's Pedro Feliz vs. Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria: We knew the Rays would get in there sooner or later. Longoria has been everything the Rays expected of him and more. He's come in and become the face of the franchise, their MVP, the leagues Rookie of the Year (it's not official yet, but cmon…) and has shown no ill effects in adjusting to the postseason spotlight either, as he hit home runs in his first two at bats, and 6 over the course of the postseason thus far. He's shined in the spotlight. Feliz is essentially a journeyman third baseman. Servicable, above average glove, but not the game changer Longoria can be. Greg Dobbs is also sure to factor in, as he brings a better bat than Feliz, but still nothing close to what Longoria can provide. Advantage: Rays
Left Field: Philadelphia's Pat Burrell vs. Tampa Bay's Carl Crawford: Nice matchup here. Interestingly enough, both left fielders are the longest tenured members of their respective teams. Both have had disappointing seasons over the course of their careers, but Crawfords has been this year, thus I'll lean towards Burrell. With their powers combined, they would be a huge force. Burrell's power combined with Crawfords speed and average (up until this season). But, Crawford's average has dipped, he's never head the power numbers typically expected of a corner outfielder, but he can make things happen on the basepaths. Again, a slight edge goes to Burrell because he's been more consistant over the 08 season. Advantage: Phillies
Center Field: Philadelphia's Shane Victorino vs. Tampa Bay's B.J. Upton: Another good one. It can be argued that both these guys have been their teams MVP's over the course of the playoffs. Victorino has been everywhere. Timely hitting, splendid baserunning, excellent defense, even a little bit of controversey, but always 100% hustle. Upton has overcome a somewhat disappointing regular season by doing nothing short of mashing in October. Upton, the number two overall pick in the 2002 draft (Ugh…The Pirates chose Bryan Bullington number one that year, in case you needed to be reminded), has always been viewed as a 5 tool guy, and he has been for the most part. Even still, this postseason has been his coming out party. Advantage: Rays
Right Field: Philadelphia's Jayson Werth vs. Tampa Bay's Gabe Gross: Werth has had a very solid season after being a platoon player for most of his career. He, like Victorino, is known for being gritty and hard nosed. He's got a little speed to him as well. He can be a factor hitting behind the big guns at the top of the lineup. Gross, who came to the Rays from the Brewers earlier this year, helped get the Rays into October, but has done very little since. Look for fan favorite Rocco Baldelli to get more time in right over the course of the series, as his body permits. Advantage: Phillies
Catcher: Philadelphia's Carlos Ruiz vs. Tampa Bay's Dioner Navarro: I personally don’t see why Ruiz has gotten the bulk of the starts over Chris Coste. Maybe he calls a better game, or has a better arm…not too sure. Coste has the better bat by far though. It will be interesting to see how Charlie Manuel works Coste into the lineup. Navarro emerged this season as an All Star for the Rays, has a crazy arm, throwing out 38% of base stealers this season (yes, that’s good), and possesses a good bat. He can show some pop every now and then too, but he's been more a gap to gap guy rather than a home run threat. Advantage: Rays
Rotation: Philadelphia's Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton vs. Tampa Bay's Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, and Andy Sonnanstine: Outside of Hamels, who has been a stud all season long, you're not too sure about what you're gonna get from any of the Phillies starters. Myers has had a strong second half, but has struggled a bit in the playoffs, sporting an ERA over 5. That said, Jamie Moyer's playoff ERA nearly triples that, coming in at 13.50. Blanton is an arm, and can eat some innings, but I don’t see a dominating performance coming from him by any means. The Rays staff is solid top to bottom, though Garza has been their best lately. He threw two gems against the Red Sox to help catapult the Rays into the World Series. Kazmir overcame a rough start in game 2 of the ALCS and has been what you would expect from him outside of that start. Shields has had some rough patches in some of the games, but his playoff ERA is still 3.72, and has been the victim of low run support as well. Sonnanstine is a great choice for a Game 4 starter. He's battled all season and posted 13 wins on the board. Granted, he's no ace, but I'd take him over Blanton in a heartbeat. Advantage: Rays
Bullpen: The Phillies bullpen has been a strength all season long. Clay Condrey and Chad Durbin have controlled the middle innings when needed. They've been rocky at some points, but that’s kind of par for the course regarding middle relievers. Scott Eyre, J.C. Romero, and Ryan Madson have been damn near dominant (outside of some spotty control issues) in holding Phillie leads prior to handing the ball over to Brad Lidge, who hasn't blown a save ALL SEASON. We keep waiting for a Pujols-esqe walk off that will damage Lidge's psyche, but no ones been able to pull one off as of yet. The Rays pen is a little less standardized. Most of their guys can be put in in any situation. With a lead in the 7th, they usually start with J.P. Howell, moving into Grant Balfour, and then Dan Wheeler, who took the closer spot due to Troy Percival's injury. This offseason though, Manager Joe Maddon has interchanged roles, playing matchups, and showing no fear for tomorrow when throwing guys in there. In addition to the combo above, Trever Miller and Chad Bradford have been thrown in, and performed well, in difficult situations. Edwin Jackson moves to the pen for this series, as he can provide a lot of innings if necessary. A big question revolves around top prospect David Price. What will his role be in the World Series? Will he be a matchup guy? A set up man? Closer? He used his 98 MPH fastball and ridiculous curve to perfection against the Red Sox, and got the save in Game 7, so he's already been put in about as big a pressure situation as you can be put into. Both pens should be solid throughout the series, but I think I have to give the Phightins another slight edge here. Advantage: Phillies
So tally that up, and you have Phillies 6, Rays 4. Unfortunately I can't deviate from these
rankings and pick against them. A rule of thumb is, when in doubt, go with pitching. However, I'm not sure that over 9 innings, the Rays pitching is THAT much better than the Phillies. Since they have a few more bats, I'll side with them. I give the managerial edge to Joe Maddon over Chuck Manuel, but not by much. Though, reasonbly so, that is overshadowed by the Phanatic's mascoterial dominance over Raymond. Top to bottom, these should all be very competitive games, and a very fun series to watch. As I've mentioned, I like some of the players that the Phillies have, but I would definitely not enjoy seeing those obnoxious Philadelphia fans have reason to celebrate. Trust me, I would love nothing more than to see anohter Mitch Williams moment, but I just think Philadelphia extracts a little bit of vengeance on the Tampa area for the aforementioned Bucs and Lightning victories, and brings home the 2008 World Series Championship in 6 games. MVP: Jimmy Rollins.
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